Full Report — Promises Made. Promises Broken.

MARCH 17, 2026 — THEY SAID THE QUIET PART OUT LOUD

"The last of our concerns right now."

— Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, on the war's impact on American consumers

The president's top economic advisor told CNBC that the economic toll Americans are paying — gas up nearly a dollar, diesel past $5, groceries rising, heating bills climbing — is "really the last of our concerns right now."

"The fact is that the U.S. economy is fundamentally sound and that if it were to be extended, it wouldn't really disrupt the U.S. economy very much at all. It would hurt consumers and we'd have to think about if that continued what we would have to do about that. But that's the like, really the last of our concerns right now because we're very confident that this thing is going ahead of schedule."

— Kevin Hassett, CNBC "Squawk Box," March 17, 2026 | Source: The Hill

The context: Gas at $3.79/gal nationally. Diesel at $5.03/gal. Oil above $100/barrel. 48 out of 50 states above $3/gal — up from 9 states a month ago. Fertilizer prices doubled. American computers wiped by Iranian hackers. Six U.S. service members dead. And the president's economic advisor says your pain is the last thing they're thinking about.

The response:

Rep. Ted Lieu: "I want the White House to send Kevin Hassett to every single swing House district, where you can tell the voters of America that hurting consumers is, quote, the last of their concerns."

House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries: "The Trump administration has once again said the quiet part out loud. Republicans don't give a damn about the American people."

Sen. Ruben Gallego: "Trump economic advisor says consumer pain is the last of their concerns. Tell that to Americans paying almost twice as much for gas as they were a month ago."

He promised to bring prices down on Day One. His own advisor just told you: your pain is the last of their concerns.

What He Said on the Campaign Trail

"I will immediately bring prices down, starting on Day One."

— Bedminster, NJ — August 15, 2024

"We will drive down prices and make America affordable again."

— Republican National Convention — July 18, 2024

"I'm not gonna start a war. I'm gonna stop wars."

— Election Night Victory Speech — November 2024

"I am the candidate of peace."

— Campaign Rally — October 2024

"We will cut energy prices in half within 12 months."

— Detroit Rally — October 18, 2024

"Drill, baby, drill."

— Repeated throughout 2024 campaign

What Actually Happened

COUNTRIES WHERE U.S. HAS ORDERED MILITARY STRIKES

IranVenezuelaYemenNigeriaSyriaSomaliaIraq (via proxy)Cuba (naval)

IRAN'S RETALIATION HAS STRUCK

UAE (Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Jebel Ali Port)Saudi Arabia (Ras Tanura refinery)Qatar (gas facilities)Kuwait (US Embassy)Bahrain (Crowne Plaza, desalination)Iraq (Erbil, Baghdad)Oman (Duqm, Salalah ports)Cyprus (UK Akrotiri base)JordanIsrael

The Strait of Hormuz — Why It Matters to You

20%

of global oil supply passes through

20M

barrels per day normally transit

~50%

of global urea/sulfur exports

20%

of global LNG supply

As of March 11: The IRGC has declared no oil will pass. Tanker traffic has dropped to near zero. Insurance has been pulled. Ships are rerouting around the southern tip of Africa, adding weeks and massive cost to every shipment.

MARCH 13, 2026 — PENTAGON BRIEFING

"It is open for transit should Iran not do that."

— Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defense, on the Strait of Hormuz

"The only thing prohibiting transit in the straits right now is Iran shooting at shipping. It is open for transit should Iran not do that."

— Pete Hegseth, Pentagon Briefing, March 13, 2026 | Sources: CNBC, HuffPost, C-SPAN

He also added: "We have been dealing with it, and don't need to worry about it."

LET THAT SINK IN

By that logic, the Korean DMZ is "open" — except for the landmines and the snipers.

The East-West German border was "open" — except for the mines, the guard towers, and the shoot-to-kill orders.

How exactly does a passageway qualify as "open" if someone is actively trying to blow you up for using it?

The reality on the ground: As of March 18, at least 21 ships have been hit or attacked since the war began. The UN's International Maritime Organisation held emergency talks. Insurance has been pulled from Gulf-bound vessels. Tanker traffic has dropped to near zero. Iran's IRGC commander declared any ship must obtain Iran's approval to pass — or face attack. France, Britain, Germany, Japan, China, Italy, and Greece all rejected Trump's call to send warships. And the Secretary of Defense says we "don't need to worry about it."

21 ships attacked. Zero escorts. Insurance pulled. But don't worry — it's "open."

Oil Price Escalation

Pre-War Brent Crude~$73/bbl

March 3 Surge$80–82/bbl

March 9 Spike (WTI)$120/bbl intraday

Brent March 10$103.47/bbl

Iran's Threat$200/bbl

Iran's IRGC threat (Mar 11): "You will not be able to artificially lower the price of oil. Expect oil at $200 per barrel." — IRGC Khatam al-Anbiya HQ spokesperson

The War Came Home — Cyberattacks on U.S. Companies

MARCH 11, 2026 — VERIFIED

Iranian-Backed Hackers Cripple Stryker Corporation

Target: Stryker Corp (NYSE: SYK) — $25B medical device maker
Attack type: Wiper attack — data erased, not ransomed
Scale claimed: 200,000+ systems across 79 countries
Data seized: 50 terabytes (claimed by attackers)
Attacker: Handala — linked to Iran's Ministry of Intelligence (MOIS)
Impact: Global network down. 5,000+ workers sent home in Ireland. EMS systems disrupted in Maryland.
Stock: SYK shares fell 3%+

Why this matters: This war isn't just costing you at the gas pump. It's now reaching into American workplaces. Thousands of employees showed up to work and found their laptops wiped, phones bricked, and systems dark. Hospitals lost access to EMS transmission systems. Iran-linked groups have published hit lists of U.S. tech companies including Google, Microsoft, and Nvidia.

The Fertilizer Crisis Nobody's Talking About

~50%of global urea & sulfur exports transit Hormuz

30%of world fertilizer exports pass through the Strait

20%of global LNG (key fertilizer feedstock) transits Hormuz

2xNitrogen fertilizer spot prices doubled in 72 hours

+2%Estimated food-at-home inflation increase (Wolfe Research)

Why this matters: Fertilizer prices drive food prices. Higher fertilizer → higher farming costs → higher grocery bills. This hits during spring planting season. Farmers are already considering switching from corn to soybeans because they can't afford nitrogen fertilizer. The American Farm Bureau says this threatens U.S. food security.

Where Are the Checks and Balances?

Congress Was Built to Prevent Exactly This.

The Founders gave Congress — not the President — the power to declare war. The Republican majority chose not to use it.

THE VOTES THAT KILLED OVERSIGHT

Senate: 47–53 (March 4)

War Powers Resolution killed on party lines. Only 1 Republican (Rand Paul) voted yes. Only 1 Democrat (Fetterman) voted no.

House: 219–212 (March 5)

Motion to block the resolution passed. Only 2 Republicans (Massie, Davidson) voted for oversight. Speaker Johnson: "I believe we have the votes to put this down."

WHAT THEY SAID — IN THEIR OWN WORDS

"The Constitution vests the power of declaring war with Congress; therefore no offensive expedition of importance can be undertaken until after they have deliberated upon the subject."

— George Washington (1793)

"The Constitution is clear… Our Constitution provides Congress initiatory powers of war."

— Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY)

"The president called it a war. The Joint Chiefs called it a war. The Secretary of State called it a war. It's a war!"

— Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA)

"I just came from a two-hour classified briefing on the war. It confirmed to me that the strategy is totally incoherent."

— Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT)

"We have seen a ludicrous increase in the speed of Congress' abdication of authority to the Executive Branch."

— Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL)

The bottom line: The Founders designed Congress to be the people's check on presidential power — especially the power to go to war. The Republican majority has chosen, vote after vote, to hand that power to one person. No authorization. No public hearings. No accountability. Americans are paying the price at the pump, at the grocery store, and now at their workplace — and the people elected to represent them won't even demand to know why.

The Betrayal Circle: Russia Wins. Americans Pay. Ukraine Defends Us.

Russia is helping Iran target American troops. The administration's response? Ease Russian sanctions. Ukraine — which we abandoned — is sending experts to defend us.

RUSSIA IS HELPING IRAN KILL AMERICANS

VKS satellite imagery: Russia providing military satellite data showing locations of U.S. warships, aircraft, air defense assets, and naval movements — Wall Street Journal, March 17

Before-and-after targeting: Satellite data includes pre-strike and post-strike imagery — helping Iran assess what it missed and strike again — WSJ / DroneXL

Upgraded Shahed drones: Russia sending modified drone components with improved communications, navigation, and targeting. Tactical strike guidance — how many drones to send, what altitudes to fly at — tactics perfected bombing Ukrainian cities — WSJ, Times of Israel

Confirmed independently: Washington Post, CNN, NBC, AP, PBS (Mar 6); Wall Street Journal (Mar 17); senior European intelligence officer confirmed

6+ U.S. service members killed by Iranian attacks aided by Russian intelligence and technology

THE ADMINISTRATION'S RESPONSE: REWARD RUSSIA

30-day waiver: Treasury eased sanctions on Russian oil at sea — Mar 12. Authorized shipments through April 11. — WaPo, NBC, CNN

Russia's oil discount vanished: Was selling at 10-20% below Brent. Now at full price. "The discount has completely vanished." — CBS News / CERA analyst

Moscow "reveling": WaPo headline — Russia sees the move as "a financial windfall" and hopes it leads to further sanctions relief

IRGC vessels included: License covers ships sanctioned for links to the IRGC — the very forces attacking Americans

CAATSA violated: Move requires 30-day congressional notice — never provided. Senate Banking Committee flagged.

Europe rebuked: Macron, Merz, Starmer all criticized the decision. 6 of 7 G7 leaders opposed. Only Orbán agreed.

UKRAINE — WHICH WE ABANDONED — IS DEFENDING US

201 Ukrainian drone warfare experts deployed to UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait — defending U.S. bases and allies against the same Shahed drones Russia helped upgrade — Al Jazeera, Mar 18

Zelenskyy: "Russia and Iran are brothers in weapons." "These are military experts who know how to help defend against Shahed drones." — UK Parliament address, Mar 18

Starmer: "Putin can't be the one who benefits from the conflict in Iran, whether that's oil prices or the dropping of sanctions." — Al Jazeera

The economics: U.S. burning $13.5M Patriot missiles to intercept $30K drones. Ukraine's interceptor drones cost ~$2,500. Trump told Zelenskyy "you don't have the cards" — one year later, America is asking for his help. — Time, DroneXL

800+ Patriot missiles fired in the Gulf in 3 days — more than Ukraine received in 4 years (Zelenskyy)

1,000+ PAC-3 interceptors estimated used since Feb 28 (Bloomberg Intelligence) — production was only 620/year in 2025

Peace talks disrupted: Ukraine-Russia talks moved from Abu Dhabi — Iran was attacking the host city

The full circle: The president started a war with Iran without congressional authorization. That war shut down the Strait of Hormuz, driving up prices for every American. To contain the oil damage he created, he eased sanctions on Russia — erasing Russia's oil discount entirely and handing Moscow a financial windfall. Russia is using that windfall to fund its war in Ukraine while simultaneously providing Iran with military satellite imagery, upgraded drone technology, and tactical strike guidance to target and kill American troops. The country we abandoned — Ukraine — is sending 201 drone experts to defend American bases, using $2,500 interceptor drones because we're burning through $13.5 million Patriot missiles. And Congress voted not to ask a single question about any of it.

WHAT THIS WAR COSTS YOUR FAMILY

$3,400+

extra per household if this drags to September

Based on projections from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Moody's, Wolfe Research, EIA, IMF, and Center for American Progress.

⏱

Three Scenarios — How Long Does This Last?

ENDS IN MAY

3 months — Oil ~$85/bbl, Gas ~$3.50

~$284

Gas (2 drivers)+$146

Diesel pass-through+$75

Groceries+$25

Heating+$38

DRAGS TO JULY

5 months — Oil ~$100/bbl, Gas ~$4.00

~$1,027

Gas (2 drivers)+$468

Diesel pass-through+$188

Groceries+$167

Heating+$104

Shipping surcharges+$100

SEPTEMBER — FULL NIGHTMARE

7 months — Oil $120–150/bbl, Gas $4.50–5.00

~$3,444+

Gas (2 drivers)+$1,131

Diesel pass-through+$438

Groceries+$350

Heating+$233

Shipping surcharges+$292

Higher mortgage rates+$1,000+

And the damage doesn't stop when the war stops. Fertilizer shortages create a 12–18 month inflationary tail on food prices. Even if the Strait reopens tomorrow, farmers have already missed the spring planting window. That means smaller harvests, higher prices at the grocery store well into 2027.

$3,400 Is Real Money. Here's What It Equals.

6 months

of car payments (avg $573/mo)

1 semester

of community college tuition

3 months

of groceries for a family of 3

8 months

of electric bills (avg $147/mo)

17 tanks

of gas at pre-war prices

1 year

of a child's school supplies & activities

→

The Ripple Effect on Everything You Buy

⛽

Fuel & Transport

Gas up $0.50+/gal. Diesel up $0.89/gal. Every product shipped by truck costs more to deliver.

🌾

Farming & Fertilizer

Nitrogen fertilizer prices doubled in 72 hours. Farmers considering switching crops. USDA food security warning issued.

🛒

Grocery Prices

Wolfe Research estimates food-at-home inflation could jump 2 percentage points. That's roughly $200+/year for an average household.

✈️

Travel & Shipping

Jet fuel supply tightening. Airlines hiking prices. Ships rerouting around Africa adding weeks to delivery times.

🏠

Heating & Energy

Natural gas prices surging. European gas jumped 75% since war began. US home heating costs set to follow.

💻

Cyber Warfare on U.S. Companies

Iranian-backed hackers wiped 200,000+ systems at Stryker Corp. EMS systems disrupted. Iran published hit lists targeting Google, Microsoft, Nvidia.

🇷🇺

Russia Profits, Ukraine Suffers

Russia providing Iran intel to target U.S. troops. Administration responded by easing Russian sanctions. 800+ Patriot missiles burned in Gulf — more than Ukraine got in 4 years. Putin gets windfall oil profits.

⚠

What the Experts Are Saying

"If oil stays near $100/bbl, gas will close in on $4/gal. Inflation will quickly accelerate, cutting into purchasing power, hitting spending, GDP and jobs."

— Mark Zandi, Moody's Chief Economist

"The longer this lasts, the more significant the shock. Monthly inflation could hit 1% in March — the highest in four years."

— Gregory Daco, EY-Parthenon Chief Economist

"Oil up 42% from pre-war levels could push U.S. inflation from 2.4% to 3%+ in coming months."

— JPMorgan economists

"Every sustained 10% oil increase adds 0.4% to global inflation and reduces output by up to 0.2%."

— IMF Dir. Kristalina Georgieva

"A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a guaranteed global recession."

— Bob McNally, Rapidan Energy

"If Iran enforces a full closure with mines and missiles, Brent surges toward $200/barrel."

— Deutsche Bank

"This self-made global energy shock is serving to enrich Putin and line his war coffers by offering him windfall profits."

— Senate Banking Committee, Joint Democratic Statement

"Reports that Moscow and Tehran are working together to kill US troops should come as no surprise. Ukraine is offering to help defend Americans and our partners in the Gulf."

— EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas

"It would hurt consumers, and we'd have to think about what we'd have to do about that. But that's really the last of our concerns right now."

— Kevin Hassett, NEC Director, CNBC — March 17, 2026

"The only thing prohibiting transit in the straits right now is Iran shooting at shipping. It is open for transit should Iran not do that." ... "We have been dealing with it, and don't need to worry about it."

— Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defense, Pentagon Briefing — March 13, 2026

⏱

From Campaign Trail to War — The Timeline

Nov 2024

Trump wins on promises of peace & lower prices

Jan 2025

Takes office. Gas: ~$3.00/gal

Jun 2025

First strikes on Iran nuclear sites (Op. Midnight Hammer)

Late 2025

Gas dips to ~$2.85. "Prices coming way down" — Trump

Jan 2026

Military buildup in Middle East. Carriers deployed.

Feb 2026

Gas at $2.96. Below $3.00 for 13 straight weeks.

Feb 28, 2026

Operation Epic Fury launched. Iran's Supreme Leader killed.

Mar 2, 2026

Iran closes Strait of Hormuz. Oil surges overnight.

Mar 4–5, 2026

Congress votes DOWN War Powers Resolutions on party lines.

Mar 9, 2026

Oil hits $120/bbl intraday. Gas at $3.50 national avg.

Mar 11, 2026

IRGC: "Not a litre of oil" will pass. Threatens $200/bbl.

Mar 11, 2026

Iranian-backed hackers wipe Stryker Corp systems globally. 200K+ devices down.

Mar 13, 2026

Hegseth: Strait is "open" — "the only thing prohibiting transit is Iran shooting at shipping."

Mar 17, 2026

Hassett: Consumer pain is "the last of our concerns right now." Gas hits $3.79.

"We had no wars. I'm not going to start a war."

— Donald Trump, 2024 Campaign

Since taking office, the administration has ordered military strikes in Venezuela, Yemen, Nigeria, Syria, Somalia, Iraq, and now a full-scale war with Iran — a conflict that has spread to impact at least 10 countries, killed U.S. service members, and triggered the worst energy crisis since 2022.

📊

Raw Campaign Data Points

All figures sourced from FRED, AAA, EIA, Goldman Sachs Research, Wolfe Research, CNBC, AP, NPR, CRS Reports, American Farm Bureau, and the International Food Policy Research Institute. Dates verified as of March 12, 2026.

ENERGY

01Gas national avg pre-war: $2.96/gal (Feb 26, 2026) — Source: AAA

02Gas national avg now: $3.79/gal (Mar 18, 2026) — Source: AAA

03California gas avg: $5.20/gal (Mar 9, 2026) — Source: AAA/CBS

04Diesel avg: $5.03/gal — Source: GasBuddy/Gizmodo

05Brent crude pre-war: ~$73/bbl — Source: Kpler

06Brent crude peak: $120/bbl intraday (Mar 9) — Source: CBS/Yahoo

07Brent settled at: $103.47/bbl (Mar 10) — Source: CNBC

08Iran IRGC threat: $200/bbl — Source: Al Jazeera, Mar 11

0920M bbl/day normally transits Hormuz — Source: EIA

10Tanker traffic: effectively zero since ~Mar 5 — Source: Kpler/UKMTO

FOOD & AGRICULTURE

01~50% of global urea & sulfur exports transit Hormuz — Source: Fertilizer Institute

0230% of world fertilizer exports flow through strait — Source: IFPRI

0320% of global LNG (fertilizer feedstock) transits Hormuz — Source: Goldman Sachs

04Nitrogen fertilizer spot prices doubled in 72 hours — Source: FinancialContent/CME

05Estimated +2% food-at-home inflation — Source: Wolfe Research

06QatarEnergy declared force majeure on LNG — Source: NTD/Epoch Times

07American Farm Bureau warns of 'food security' risk for U.S. — Source: AFBF Market Intel

MILITARY & GEOPOLITICAL

01Operation Epic Fury began Feb 28, 2026 — Source: Pentagon/DoD

02Countries with U.S. strikes: Venezuela, Yemen, Nigeria, Syria, Somalia, Iran, Iraq — Source: NPR/DNC

03Iran retaliation hit: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, Oman, Cyprus, Jordan, Israel — Source: Britannica

046+ U.S. service members killed — Source: NPR/ABC/Reuters

05First 100 hours cost est: $3.7 billion ($891M/day) — Source: CSIS

06No congressional authorization for war — Source: Stimson Center

CONGRESSIONAL ABDICATION

01Senate War Powers vote: 47-53, killed on party lines (Mar 4) — Source: NBC News

02Only 1 Republican senator (Rand Paul) voted for oversight — Source: NBC/CBS

03House vote: 219-212, motion to block resolution passed (Mar 5) — Source: Al Jazeera/Time

04Only 2 House Republicans (Massie, Davidson) voted for oversight — Source: Time/CFR

05No public hearings on the war held — only classified briefings — Source: NPR

06CBS poll: Most Americans disapprove of war, say goals not explained — Source: CBS News

07PBS/NPR/Marist poll: Checks and balances failing — 19% drop among Republicans — Source: PBS

0817 Inspectors General fired Jan 2025 — Source: Ballotpedia

CYBERWARFARE

01Stryker Corp hit by Iranian-backed wiper attack — Mar 11, 2026 — Source: CNN, Bloomberg, WSJ

02Attacker: Handala, linked to Iran's MOIS — Source: Palo Alto Networks, Krebs

03Claims: 200,000+ systems wiped across 79 countries — Source: Krebs on Security

045,000+ workers sent home in Ireland — Source: Irish Examiner, Krebs

05Maryland EMS Lifenet ECG systems went non-functional — Source: CNN

06Iran state media published hit list: Google, Microsoft, Nvidia named — Source: Al Jazeera

RUSSIA / UKRAINE — THE CONTRADICTION

01Russia providing Iran locations of U.S. warships, aircraft, bases — Source: Washington Post, Mar 6

02Satellite imagery from Russia's constellation shared with Iran — Source: CNN, Mar 6

03U.S. official: "a pretty comprehensive effort" — Source: Washington Post

04Iranian FM on Meet the Press: partnership with Russia "not a secret" — Source: NBC

05Treasury issued 30-day waiver on Russian oil sanctions to India (Mar 6) — Source: Reuters

06Trump (Mar 9): "We're waiving certain oil-related sanctions" — Source: S&P Global, France24

07License covers vessels sanctioned for IRGC links — Source: Senate Banking Committee

08Move violated CAATSA 30-day congressional notice requirement — Source: Senate Banking Committee

09800+ Patriot missiles fired in Gulf in 3 days — more than Ukraine got in 4 years — Source: Zelenskyy via Al Jazeera

101,000+ PAC-3 interceptors estimated used since Feb 28 — Source: Bloomberg Intelligence

1120,000 anti-drone missiles diverted from Ukraine to Middle East — Source: Kyiv Independent

12Ukraine-Russia peace talks delayed — Abu Dhabi under attack — Source: Foreign Policy

CAMPAIGN PROMISES VS. REALITY

01"Immediately bring prices down starting on Day One" — Aug 15, 2024

02"Cut energy prices in half within 12 months" — Oct 18, 2024

03"I'm not gonna start a war. I'm gonna stop wars." — Nov 2024

04Gas never reached $2/gal target — PolitiFact rated 'Stalled'

05VP Vance WSJ op-ed: "Trump's Best Foreign Policy? Not Starting Any Wars" — 2023

06DNI Gabbard sold "No War with Iran" shirts in 2020 — Source: Axios

07Marjorie Taylor Greene criticized Trump for abandoning America First — Source: NPR

08NEC Dir. Hassett: Consumer pain is "the last of our concerns right now" — Mar 17, CNBC — Source: The Hill

09Hegseth: Strait is "open" except "Iran shooting at shipping" — "don't need to worry about it" — Mar 13 — Source: CNBC/HuffPost/C-SPAN

10Bessent dismissed price crisis: "trying to make it into some crisis that it's not" — Mar 16, CNBC — Source: Fortune

11Trump on gas prices: "a very small price to pay" — Truth Social — Source: Fox News/Boston Globe

PROMISES MADE.PROMISES BROKEN.