From Campaign Trail to War

The complete chronology — from promises of peace and low prices to the most expensive military operation since Iraq.

THE PROMISES
July 18, 2024
"We will drive down prices and make America affordable again."
Republican National Convention
August 15, 2024
"I will immediately bring prices down, starting on Day One."
Bedminster, NJ press conference
October 18, 2024
"We will cut energy prices in half within 12 months."
Detroit Rally
October 2024
"I am the candidate of peace."
Campaign rally
November 2024
"I'm not gonna start a war. I'm gonna stop wars." Wins election on promises of peace and lower prices.
Election Night Victory Speech
2023 (Vance)
VP Vance's Wall Street Journal op-ed: "Trump's Best Foreign Policy? Not Starting Any Wars."
Wall Street Journal
2020 (Gabbard)
DNI Tulsi Gabbard sold "No War with Iran" campaign merchandise.
Source: Axios
January 2025
Takes office. Gas: ~$3.00/gal. 17 inspectors general fired in a single night. CIGIE defunded by OMB.
NPR, CBS, AP
June 2025
First strikes on Iranian nuclear sites — Operation Midnight Hammer.
Pentagon / DoD
Late 2025
Gas dips to ~$2.85. Trump claims: "Prices coming way down." Gas below $3 for 13 straight weeks.
AAA, FRED
January–February 2026
Massive military buildup in Middle East. Carrier groups deployed. Gas at $2.96.
NPR, Reuters
THE WAR
February 28, 2026
Operation Epic Fury launched. Joint U.S.-Israeli strikes kill Supreme Leader Khamenei. Strikes hit targets in 7+ countries: Iran, Venezuela, Yemen, Nigeria, Syria, Somalia, Iraq. No congressional authorization.
Pentagon, NPR, AP, Reuters
March 1–2, 2026
Iran retaliates. Strikes hit 10+ countries: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, Oman, Cyprus, Jordan, Israel. IRGC announces closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil surges overnight.
Britannica, Al Jazeera, Reuters
March 4–5, 2026
Congress votes DOWN War Powers Resolutions on party lines. Senate: 47-53 (only Rand Paul R voted yes). House: 219-212 (only Massie, Davidson R voted for oversight). Zero public hearings scheduled.
NBC News, Time, CFR, Al Jazeera
March 6, 2026
Russia providing Iran intelligence — satellite imagery and targeting data on U.S. warships, aircraft, and bases. Multiple outlets confirm independently.
Washington Post, CNN, NBC, AP, PBS
March 7, 2026
6+ U.S. service members killed. By Day 7, over 1,332 people killed in Iran. First 100 hours cost est: $3.7 billion ($891M/day).
NPR, ABC, Reuters, CSIS
March 9, 2026
Oil hits $120/barrel intraday (WTI). Brent settles at $103.47. Fertilizer prices doubled in 72 hours. QatarEnergy declares force majeure on LNG.
EIA, CME, NTD
March 11, 2026
IRGC: "Not a litre of oil" will pass. Threatens $200/barrel. Meanwhile, Iranian-backed group Handala wipes 200,000+ Stryker Corp systems across 79 countries. 5,000+ workers sent home in Ireland. SYK stock drops 3%+.
IRGC via Press TV; CNN, Bloomberg, WSJ, Krebs on Security
THE FALLOUT — THEY SAID THE QUIET PART OUT LOUD
March 13, 2026
Hegseth at Pentagon briefing: "The only thing prohibiting transit in the straits right now is Iran shooting at shipping. It is open for transit should Iran not do that." Also: "Don't need to worry about it."

By this logic, the Korean DMZ is "open" — except for the landmines and the snipers.
Source: CNBC, HuffPost, C-SPAN, Human Events
March 16, 2026
Treasury Sec. Bessent on CNBC: Dismissed the price crisis as people "trying to make it into some crisis that it's not." Said Treasury won't intervene in futures markets.
Source: Fortune, CNBC
March 17, 2026
NEC Director Hassett on CNBC: "It would hurt consumers, and we'd have to think about what we'd have to do about that. But that's really the last of our concerns right now."

Gas at $3.79 nationally. Diesel at $5.03. 48 out of 50 states above $3/gal.
Source: The Hill, Common Dreams, Washington Examiner, Gizmodo
March 18, 2026
UN International Maritime Organisation holds emergency talks. 21+ ships attacked since war began. France, UK, Germany, Japan, China, Italy, Greece all reject Trump's call to send warships. Insurance pulled from Gulf-bound vessels. Tanker traffic near zero.
Source: Euronews, Al Jazeera, Financial Times, UKMTO
Ongoing
Administration eases Russian oil sanctions — 30-day waiver to India covering IRGC-linked tankers. Senate Banking Committee says move violated CAATSA 30-day notice requirement. Russia using windfall profits to fund war in Ukraine while providing Iran intel to target U.S. troops.
Source: WaPo, Bloomberg, Senate Banking Committee
The full picture.

See every number, every source, every dollar — including the three cost scenarios that show what this war could cost your family.

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